Market analysis

Nasdaq index it’s at highest level since march 2001 and it seems that tech index is looking to get higher. I intend to enter long on JSDA, NTGR and PII-a company which I followed for some time.

Jones Soda (JSDA)NetGear (NTGR)Polaris (PII)

Good Trading.

Alerts portfolio analysis

This month wanted to be a month of portfolio consolidation/repositioning on the market. But the market arqued with me and put my brains to work again on the long side of her (market is believed to be female becouse of her instability and fancyfulness-so that’s why everybody wants to ride the market…). This month was the explosion on the romanian stock exchange especially on small and mid caps. Price quotations of quite a large number of these small and mid cap companies went to the sky so I took advantage and made some profits on pure speculation on real estate value of these companies-nothing more. I am convinced that out there are some very good companies which i prefer to buy after dust settles-these companies will be more cheeper. But that’s not all: to my record monthly performance of 17% contributed also ~5% gain on equity made on american stocks&futures on crude oil and a breakout in romanian etf’s which created a good uptrend. What’s next: for july I intend to watch closer U.S. markets – I presume some consolidation may take place before new uptrend begins but I do not exclude bigger correction idea before consolidation. Or something else: if SP500 fails to correct and passes trough 1560 level we could see a big multi month uptrend on american markets. And potential does exist-SP500 PER is under 18 and if we’ll assist on another strong corporate returns quarter toghether with fact that the construction sector declines is already priced in there will be some big up moves. New highs are set to be taken out sooner or later (remember 2000 year high on SP500 and NDX – in this case NASDAQ has the biggest potential of all efficient markets in the world). Also I intend to enter long on futures gold- nice developments are happening up there..

 closed-trades.doc instruments-added-to-portfolio-based-on-alerts.doc  account-performace_june.doc

Good Trading to all.

U.S. Markets

U.S. Markets opening looks bright and I can assume that this week SP500 will try to rich all time high. I will some new positions to my portfolio. Here is the list of candidates:

CEPHALON (NASD:CEPH) Looks good on chart and fundamentals and momentum can push CEPH to 100$ level.

LIONBRIDGE TECHNOLOGIES (NASD:LIOX) This stock is expected to rize in sales and to become profitable this year. And chart looks very good.

Ultra Clean Holdings (NASD:UCTT) this is my favorite chart-good stock which was hammered by some bad news and now looks set to recover.

Good Trading

U.S. MARKETS

After 1,5 months of standing away from u.s. markets expecting a bigger correction I decided to enter some long position on stocks, oil futures and usd/cad forex. SP500 is 2,2% distance from its all time high and I don’t want to miss it. If we analyze monthly chart of SP500 we can see a strong momentum which can carrie on higher levels SP500 index. And U.S. dollar has shown some muscles… If SP500 doesn’t pass trough 1558 level I’ll reconsider my stock positions.

AVICI SYSTEMS (NASD:AVCI) At some point I like to play contrarian strategy and decided to buy this depressed stock- market believes it can be worse. I say the worse already is priced  and this stock has good upside potential judging by fundamentals. Buy at 7.10-7.30 level. I’ll take loss at 6,58. Target at 9,00.

SANDISK (NASD:SNDK) For some reasons I was avoiding chip stocks but sndk looks very good on chart- just passed trough 200 ma and rising revenues and quick adaptations to market (there are some price wars in this industry) are set to bring more profits in shareholders’ pockets. Buy 44.7-45 range.

JET BLUE AIRWAYS (NASD:JBLU) I like this stock-has played a few times very good and I intend to enter long at these levels.

SOURCE FORGE (ex-LINUX/NASD:LNUX) This company ended Q1 with profit and plans to keep this pace for full year. I think it will be more profitable years for this company. Buy at tese levels with stop below 3,90.

Long on US Dollar seems to be very likely due to a correction from dollar lows. Long USD/CAD stop at 1.054 target 1,10.

OIL FUTURES JULY (NYMEX: QM) Resistance at 67 was taken out and I think there will be some up movements. Buy with stop immediately under 64 level. Target 74,00.

Good Trading

june, 14, 2007; 14:44 NY Time

Alerts portfolio analysis

After a review on my past performance and last alerts portfolio analysis I can only conclude 2 things: I am glad not to short u.s. markets as I specified in my last’s month post. I am not glad keeping 2 losing u.s. market positions: after all I closed them with stop. But… I had obtained this month 11% return… How I did it? Romanian small caps!  There were some crazy movements on romanian small caps and explanation in this thing is that romanian blue chips are equal valued or slightly overvalued compared to small caps which were traded at 3-7 times multiples and their business growing and growing. More investors caught the movement and jumped into this vagon. So did I: 71% return on one single position in 2 weeks! (PREH) This was the craziest month in these terms on romanian market: everybody, but absolutely everybody was seeking good romanian small cap company to invest in. I have to admit: this is 1-st wave of a bull market bubble and we have to pay maximum attention to this: there will be major corrections as there were major up movements on thin volumes and we have to watch for good companies to buy them in panic moments. Regarding my return till now: 25% in 5 months insn’t bad and I realise that  I didn’t started this site only to attract people with ads: I didn’t posted any ad and I am glad that investors made money with my alerts.

 

Good Trading!

P.S. The question is: will I be able to post alerts analysis commentary when I’ll have major losses? There have to be losses-no one is absolved from loss. I have to…

Alerts portfolio analysis

Past month was on bull’s  horn-SP500 ended month with 4% gain, Dow Jones Industrial rose also 5% while NASDAQ – 100 closed this month with 5% gain too. Bucharest Stock Exchange’s main index was the laggard rising only with 2% in april. Alerts portfolio mixed with u.s. equities&futures and with romanian equities gave this month 6,12% proving myself once again that a mixed asset alocation with different markets and a market directional speculative strategy can return better results. Best investments for april were romanian ETF SIF2 with 19,71% gain in 34 days and U.S. based Lam Research (NASD:LRCX) with 14,96% return in 29 days. A 1% contribution to my 13,28% performance to date had futures gold with expiration in may- bought at 659 and sold at 689.95; 4% gain with 25% exposure to account with 28 days holding. During april there weren’t stop loss trades-normal condition in trend markets. I can congratulate myself beeing patient- temptation to close some positions earlier then needed was big… What’s next? I expect U.S. Markets to take a retracement and I am not sure where they may find a support. I’ll try to short some ETF and go long on SDS-ultrashort ETF. Will watch for SP500 to hit 1420 level.  Also I’ll close all my long positions on U.S. Markets.

Stock buy alert

Newport Corp (NASD:NEWP). At current levels this stock may be a strong buy. Watch stops at 15,50 target 20,00.

U.S.Markets

12 april 2007 08:27 NY Time

I intend to close some long positions-we are entering earnings season and I dislike market movements during this period-it is more confortable dealing with fewer positions. I will close all positions opened recently and also ZBRA (more then 20 days holding). Also I am thinking to keep LRCX-today is earnings anouncement and I decided to take the  risk. Also I am keeping long futures gold.

Good Trading.

U.S. MARKETS

U.S. Markets seem to open higher today-if main indices will open with gap up and close above opening it may be a nice up market for the rest of the week . Watch volumes. I am prepared to risk with some long positions:

INTERCONTINENTAL EXCHANGE (NYSE:ICE) I like what’s happening in this industry. Consider more mergers&acquisitions still to come. Good retracement here and ICE seems prepared to move at least to 145-that’s 11% from here…Stop at 119,00.

Encore Wire (NASD:WIRE) Still in some kind of a range after declining from 37$/share. Fundamentally looks good and technically it seems that WIRE is trying to break the range. So I decided to risk some money in this stock.

EFJ (NASD:EFJI) Looks interesting fundamentally. I’ll buy here 7% of the equity and, if confirms, another 8%.

See my portfolio.

Good trading

U.S. MARKETS

Stocks moved nicely up this week. I expect some profit taking so I should do the same only sooner. I’ll close in first instance EBAY which is at upper line of the sideways channel. LRCX and ZBRA did a good job too so I’ll look to close them on first sign of retracement. See portfolio analysis for details.