Alerts analysis for july

During my vacation there were some interesting developments: american markets fell on more bancruptcies of mortgage lenders and it seems that the end of it is far to be resolved despite some  big liquidity infusions from major banks of the world: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank. This is very strange if we think that global economies with U.S. Economy in top  are improving, corporation returns are bigger and bigger from one quarter to another-in a word global economy is expanding and that is also true for emerging markets. Where is the problem: The answer in my opinion is in crowd psichology and in fact that most of investors and regular people forgot about market risks and it takes a big correction to remind of a presence of such market element as RISK. The intervention of central banks is an apportune rain for entire mortgage lending system in order to avoid big imbalances which could appear as a rezult of mortgage lenders’ default.

What’s next? There may be some more shakeouts to regain market balance and I’d be very careful to enter long. I prefer in this cases commodities&forex markets to stock markets.Overall what is happening in american housing market is just a correction in trend which may last 2-3 years and I’ll look for some opportunities in this sector and watch those very close for market timing.

Alerts portfolio analysis

This month wanted to be a month of portfolio consolidation/repositioning on the market. But the market arqued with me and put my brains to work again on the long side of her (market is believed to be female becouse of her instability and fancyfulness-so that’s why everybody wants to ride the market…). This month was the explosion on the romanian stock exchange especially on small and mid caps. Price quotations of quite a large number of these small and mid cap companies went to the sky so I took advantage and made some profits on pure speculation on real estate value of these companies-nothing more. I am convinced that out there are some very good companies which i prefer to buy after dust settles-these companies will be more cheeper. But that’s not all: to my record monthly performance of 17% contributed also ~5% gain on equity made on american stocks&futures on crude oil and a breakout in romanian etf’s which created a good uptrend. What’s next: for july I intend to watch closer U.S. markets – I presume some consolidation may take place before new uptrend begins but I do not exclude bigger correction idea before consolidation. Or something else: if SP500 fails to correct and passes trough 1560 level we could see a big multi month uptrend on american markets. And potential does exist-SP500 PER is under 18 and if we’ll assist on another strong corporate returns quarter toghether with fact that the construction sector declines is already priced in there will be some big up moves. New highs are set to be taken out sooner or later (remember 2000 year high on SP500 and NDX – in this case NASDAQ has the biggest potential of all efficient markets in the world). Also I intend to enter long on futures gold- nice developments are happening up there..

 closed-trades.doc instruments-added-to-portfolio-based-on-alerts.doc  account-performace_june.doc

Good Trading to all.

Alerts portfolio analysis

After a review on my past performance and last alerts portfolio analysis I can only conclude 2 things: I am glad not to short u.s. markets as I specified in my last’s month post. I am not glad keeping 2 losing u.s. market positions: after all I closed them with stop. But… I had obtained this month 11% return… How I did it? Romanian small caps!  There were some crazy movements on romanian small caps and explanation in this thing is that romanian blue chips are equal valued or slightly overvalued compared to small caps which were traded at 3-7 times multiples and their business growing and growing. More investors caught the movement and jumped into this vagon. So did I: 71% return on one single position in 2 weeks! (PREH) This was the craziest month in these terms on romanian market: everybody, but absolutely everybody was seeking good romanian small cap company to invest in. I have to admit: this is 1-st wave of a bull market bubble and we have to pay maximum attention to this: there will be major corrections as there were major up movements on thin volumes and we have to watch for good companies to buy them in panic moments. Regarding my return till now: 25% in 5 months insn’t bad and I realise that  I didn’t started this site only to attract people with ads: I didn’t posted any ad and I am glad that investors made money with my alerts.

 

Good Trading!

P.S. The question is: will I be able to post alerts analysis commentary when I’ll have major losses? There have to be losses-no one is absolved from loss. I have to…

Alerts portfolio analysis

Past month was on bull’s  horn-SP500 ended month with 4% gain, Dow Jones Industrial rose also 5% while NASDAQ – 100 closed this month with 5% gain too. Bucharest Stock Exchange’s main index was the laggard rising only with 2% in april. Alerts portfolio mixed with u.s. equities&futures and with romanian equities gave this month 6,12% proving myself once again that a mixed asset alocation with different markets and a market directional speculative strategy can return better results. Best investments for april were romanian ETF SIF2 with 19,71% gain in 34 days and U.S. based Lam Research (NASD:LRCX) with 14,96% return in 29 days. A 1% contribution to my 13,28% performance to date had futures gold with expiration in may- bought at 659 and sold at 689.95; 4% gain with 25% exposure to account with 28 days holding. During april there weren’t stop loss trades-normal condition in trend markets. I can congratulate myself beeing patient- temptation to close some positions earlier then needed was big… What’s next? I expect U.S. Markets to take a retracement and I am not sure where they may find a support. I’ll try to short some ETF and go long on SDS-ultrashort ETF. Will watch for SP500 to hit 1420 level.  Also I’ll close all my long positions on U.S. Markets.

Alerts portfolio analysis

The month of March was quite volatile regarding stock markets on every place on the planet earth. It began with short term crisis in China, continued with subprime woes in U.S.; these 2 factors contributing to large losses in market capitalization worldwide then markets rebounded sharplyby the end of the month. We had everything: fear and greed(extreme market conditions) and caution (rebound may be short lived). And, based on our alerts system monitoring general market conditions before entering any trade we (I so far) managed a gain of 3,37%-not bad I admit even if I did some mistakes by closing short positions with a delay even if market conditions were prepared for a bull recovery. Helpful for me was correlation of romanian stock market with u.s. stock markets from whch i have extracted some benefits-usually these 2 markets were uncorrelated about 98% percent of the time.  Please check my performance chart and my trades’ list – 95% of the trades were initiated based on alerts triggered and posted on this blog. Commissions are substracted from sells and added to buys.

Good Trading,

marketroller.

Alerts portfolio analysis

This is the 5th week since I post trading alerts. In 5 weeks  i have gone from 100 to 101,88 which  means 1,88% and annualized return of 14,29%. It’ve  could been better then that I admit-last week portfolio value  was 104.78…Due to market trend reversal yesterday on U.S. markets and today a big sell off on romanian markets I only managed to keep this return. Loss/Profit ratio on closed trades was 7:4 and closed trades marked a 1.49% return of the total 1,88% return. What’s next? The big picture it’s not one of the brightest on U.S. markets and romanian market is struggling to keep gains too. Let’s see what will happen and let’s act in accordance with coming facts. At least on U.S. markets I’ll look to enter short on a rebound and since I often do not succeed on particular stocks I’ll look to short QQQQ (ETF) and buy SDS-Ultra Short ETF which mirrors reverse behavior of S&P 500.

Here are portfolio alerts details: